Alfred Gusenbauer, Austria's outgoing Social Democratic Chancellor On Sunday 28 September, Austria went to the polls early. This time, the grand coalition between the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and Christian Democratic Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) broke down over the Lisbon Treaty. Having ratified Lisbon and expressed contentment at the outcome, Austria ’s SPÖ Chancellor, Alfred Gusenbauer, suggested that if amendments to the Treaty became necessary in order for it to become acceptable to Irish public opinion, then Austria too would hold a referendum. This was unacceptable to the pro-EU Christian Democrats.

The new elections resulted in a stalemate and a success for the far right. It is not clear that any route lies ahead other than continuity for the unpopular and weakened grand coalition. Compared to the previous election in 2006, both parties of the grand coalition haemorrhaged votes. The ÖVP lost 8 percent and the SPÖ lost 6 percent. The Greens stayed still, with the big beneficiaries being the two parties of the far right, the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), led by Jorg Haider. Each of these parties gained 6 percent and finished with 28.2 percent of the vote between them.

Percentage vote of Austrian parties since 1999 Alfred Gusenbauer, Austria's outgoing Social Democratic Chancellor

How does this result compare with the far right’s previous triumph in 1999? The collective vote of the far right is now slightly higher but by less than 2 percent. This has occurred against a backdrop of enfranchising 16 and 17 year olds who have supported the Right in greater numbers than the rest of the population. In 1999, the Liberals still had a presence and the Far Right was united in a single party led by Jorg Haider, the FPÖ, which drew even with the ÖVP. The Christian Democrats took advantage of this situation to form a new coalition with the Freedom Party, to send their own leader to the Chancellery, and to consign the Social Democrats to opposition.

Less than three years later, new elections were held as Haider’s party became riven with divisions. This is a common occurrence in poorly structured parties based around the charisma of the leader. After years of grand coalition and no alternatives in government, Austria , Switzerland , Belgium , and the Netherlands , all of which are hyper-consensual political systems, have seen the emergence of large, populist right wing, libertarian parties, with a simplistic discourse that is anti-political, anti-tax, anti-immigration, anti-Europe and claims to defend the small man. Such parties take votes in equal measure from the traditional centre-right and centre-left. In the cases of the FPÖ and Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands , these parties have got into government and rapidly tear themselves apart before being consigned back to opposition. This is what happened in 2002, when the SPÖ and, particularly, the ÖVP gained at the expense of the FPÖ, which declined from 26.9 to 10.0 percent. The FPÖ nevertheless remained in government as a very junior coalition partner until 2006.

By 2006, Jorg Haider had resigned from the FPÖ and started a separate party, the BZÖ. Together, these two extreme parties grew from 10 to 14 percent of the vote. The Social Democrats got back into a grand coalition government, assuming its leadership.

In 2008, we have a situation where the far right, despite the divisions between FPÖ and BZÖ, has still gained more than 28 percent of the vote, but maybe this is its peak. As a consequence, there is even less alternative than the grand coalition between unhappy partners: Social and Christian Democrats are condemned to govern together indefinitely, unless either of them chooses a coalition with the far right.