We simply continue with the status quo, which is the Treaty of Nice. The other governments of the EU are deluding themselves if they think that they can convince the Irish to change their minds in the short-term. The Treaty of Lisbon is the only reform package on the table, but it could only really be re-proposed in four to five years time. In the meantime, the Treaty of Nice will continue and the EU will go on working – as it has with the rules of Nice and 25 members since 2004, rising to 27 in 2007.

The rejection (for now) of the Treaty of Lisbon means the following:

1. No enlargement to Croatia, or anywhere else;

2. National veto on trade policy, meaning that France or Ireland can credibly disrupt WTO talks that threaten, for example, agricultural protectionism (the propaganda sample below illustrates the view of Irish farmers on this matter);

3. No single foreign affairs representative: the High Representative, the President of the External Relations Council and Commissioner for External Political Relations remain three separate people. This reform would have given the single postholder some legitimacy to act on the world stage, but the decision-making procedures for CFSP and ESDP would have remained the same anyway;

4. Police and Judicial cooperation remain in the separate third pillar. This means unanimity, a limited role for Commission, no power for the ECJ or EP in police matters including anti-terrorism policy and Schengen. Therefore police and judicial matters remain less accountable (no role for the EP), with it being harder to take decisions (unanimity), and the ECJ unable to exercise judicial review when those decisions are taken;

5. The Council will continue to legislate in secret (less accountable);

6. No citizens’ petitions to trigger EU legislation;

7. One-third of national parliaments unable to trigger yellow card to Commission on legislation (this would have de facto increased the power of national governments since they have inbuilt majorities in their national parliaments);

8. No new budgetary procedure (the existing, confusing procedure with different powers for different types of spending will continue indefinitely, negotiating power for EP retained, this was one area where EP would have lost power compared to status quo);

9. No extension of EP power to the Common Agricultural Policy;

10. No Charter of Fundamental Rights (meaning that EU law and EU institutions will not be subject to constitutionalised human, social, and economic rights);

11. No permanent Presidency of EU Council, or longer shared presidencies of other councils (instead rotating six month presidencies will continue to the advantage of the Commission and EP over the governments);

12. No re-weighting of Council voting according to 55% of states and 65% of population (no de facto change to ease of reaching of agreements anyway);

13. No reduction in the number of Commissioners by one-third in 2014, instead an unspecified reduction in the number of Commissioners (below the number of member states) must take place in 2009.