The rules before the Lisbon Treaty declare that the Commission President is nominated by a qualified majority of the governments, and is accepted or rejected by a majority in the European Parliament. These rules have allowed the Commission to be elected by the EP – as a result of EP elections – since 1999. It is only assumed that the Commission is unelected because rival party programmes of different candidates do not feature in election campaigns for the European Parliament, but there is nothing to stop this actually happening.

In September, when it came to voting for or against Barroso, Barroso was the only candidate, having been adopted by the European People’s Party (EPP). The European Conservatives (ECR) and the Liberals (ALDE) announced their support for him. Meanwhile the other pro-European groups, the Socialists and Democrats (SD) and Greens opposed him without having a candidate of their own. They were joined by the European United Left (GUE) and Eurosceptic EFD Group. The result of the vote was 382 votes for Barroso, 219 against, and 117 abstentions.

How did this really break down between groups and nationalities? In the debate on his appointment, all speakers from the EPP and ECR groups gave Barroso their support. This was also the position of the ALDE group, although not of its French, Italian or Dutch D66 members. The Socialists were largely against, although the Portuguese and Slovak parties (both in government) vocally supported Barroso. Other Socialist parties in government – from the UK, Spain, Austria, and the Netherlands either did not comment or were critical and are likely to have abstained. The Green and the Left GUE groups voted against in their entirety. Most of the EFD Group was opposed, although its Italian and Slovak members (in government) voted in favour. The non-attached members, mostly from the extreme right, were for the most opposed. A handful of the latter and a few EFD members were opposed to the concept of the Commission but voted in favour because they wished to ratify decisions taken by sovereign national governments.

Calculating the totals for and against Barroso on the basis of statements made in the debate, allowing for “deviant” parties with their groups like the Portuguese Socialists or French members of the ALDE group, almost perfectly predicts the actual breakdown in the secret ballot of 382 votes for Barroso, 219 against and 117 abstentions.

We need to wait a few more weeks to see the support that the entire Commission will get in a non-secret ballot.