What was George Papandreou thinking in calling for a referendum on the package agreed by the Europeans for Greece? International media are assuming he will lose, but is that part of the calculation? Win or lose, Papandreou could be the winner. If he gets a "yes" vote, that will legitimise the action his government is taking. This will be more likely if in the meantime he is seen as getting tough not on modest Greeks but on the self-employed and super-rich who have been paying no tax. The lead-up to the referendum makes it easier for him to soak the rich.

If he gets a "no", he still wins. A "no" will be a "no" to the bail-out, a "no" to its various strings attached, and a "no" to the 50% write-down of Greek debt. The Greek people will have only themselves to blame for the disastrous consequences of a "no". After a few years, who can come back to save Greece? Papandreou.