It was clear from the results of the first round of voting that Nicolas Sarkozy was going to lose. The share of the vote for the moderate centre-right, as well as the total right (including the extreme-right) was lower than in 2007. The year 2002 was the real year of extremes with exceptionally high scores for the extreme right (over 19%), and for extreme left wing Maoist and Trotskyite candidates (over 10%). The combined left wing vote of 44% was highest in 2012 in the first round, while the Socialist and Communist candidates (not including Maoists and Trotskyites) reached 42%. It was difficult to see how Sarkozy could win in 2012 unless almost all the voters of the extreme-right and the moderate centre voted for him. A large number of extreme-right voters refuse to switch to the Gaullists for the second round, while in 2012 a new development was that François Bayrou, the moderate Centrist candidate, advised his voters to support François Hollande in the second round.

The table below illustrates share of the vote in both rounds in the presidential elections of 2002, 2007 and 2012. For the purpose of this table, I do not define the Communists as extreme-left since they are part of the French political establishment since 1945 and have played a role in coalition governments, most recently from 1997 to 2002. The Maoist and Trotskyite extreme-left outside the Communist Party enjoyed a huge share of the vote above 10% in 2002. This has since declined. On the right, there is also a tradition of small groups supporting Eurosceptic, nationalist (souverainiste) or pro-hunting parties, which also performed quite well in 2002.