This Blog will feature opinions on European affairs by members of the Centre for European Politics. Comments are welcome in English.

Britain at the Polls 2015: some personal reflections on an eventful night from Dr Nicholas Allen

Britain at the Polls 2015: some personal reflections on an eventful night - Dr Nicholas Allen

The 2015 General Election was the most unpredictable and eventful that I can remember.  Several colleagues and I followed the unfolding drama of the night in the company of over fifty Royal Holloway students.  We knew that something was up once the exit polls were published.  By the early hours of the morning, it was clear that the outcome was going to be very different from that which everyone had envisaged.

We saw Scotland ‘yellow-washed’ as the Scottish National Party won all but three of the seats north of the border.  We saw the Liberal Democrats reduced to a rump of eight MPs.  We saw many leading figures in British politics lose their seats, including Douglas Alexander, Ed Balls, Vince Cable, Simon Hughes and Charles Kennedy.  We saw Nigel Farage fail to win in South Thanet. And we saw the return to Downing Street of David Cameron, this time at the head of majority Conservative government.  To coin a phrase, very few people saw that coming.

So much can be written about the results, and a great deal will be written in the coming months.  For the time being, several issues stand out for me, many of which relate to the mechanics of Britain’s curious voting system.

First, there was no dramatic increase in turnout (see Figure 1). Although this was a very close election, and although there were big choices at stake, the number of people who thought it worth voting did not shoot up.  It increased by one point to 66.1%.  Admittedly, this was the highest turnout since 1997, and perhaps we should be grateful for small mercies. However, politicians of all parties should be worried. 

Compounding this reason to be worried is a second issue: the further fragmentation of the party system and the associated decline in the governing party’s share of the vote.  In 2015, the two major parties won barely two-thirds of the popular vote.  The Conservatives won their small majority on 36.9% of the vote.  If this was David Cameron’s sweetest victory, he’s clearly never tasted real electoral sugar.  Yet this small share of the vote was also won on a relatively low turnout. Since 1945 there has been a long downward trend in the ‘legitimacy’ of British governments, as defined by their share of the potential vote, which includes all eligible voters and not just those who did cast a ballot (see Figure 1).  Measured in this way, the Conservatives’ mandate (24.4% of all voters) is the third weakest since 1945.  Only Labour in 2001 (24.2%) and 2005 (21.6%) had a lower share of the potential vote.

Thirdly, of course, we saw the further uncoupling of Scotland’s voting behaviour and party system from the rest of the UK’s.  Half of Scottish voters plumped for the Scottish National Party (SNP), which campaigns for independence.  The party won 56 out of 59 seats, leaving the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats with one MP apiece.  These results will place further strains on the United Kingdom.  It is quite conceivable that the SNP will press for a second referendum after next year’s Scottish Parliamentary elections, and it is also conceivable that Scotland will be independent in a decade.

Fourthly, the SNP are now comfortably the third largest parliamentary party, but they secured this influence on less than 1.5 million votes.  Britain’s first-past-the-post or single-member-simple-plurality voting system rewards parties that concentrate their support.  The SNP concentrates its support in Scotland.  Other parties, notably the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the Greens spread their very substantial support much more thinly.  UKIP won nearly 4 million votes across the UK, the Greens over 1 million. Their rewards were just one MP each.  A strictly proportional voting system would have given them about 80 and 25 MPs respectively. 

Voting reform is almost certainly not on the Conservative government’s agenda, but it should be.  And some kind of German-style mixed-member voting system, which delivers a very high degree of proportionality (subject to a threshold) and maintains the tradition of a constituency MP, would be best. 

On the one hand, such a system would help to limit the distinctiveness of Scotland from the rest of the UK, and it may reduce the prospects of independence since all unionist parties would pick up a decent number of seats.  The Conservative and Unionist Party, if it still believes in the Union, should take note.  On the other hand, the voting system, it would help future governments govern for the whole country.  The present voting system is manifestly unable to translate Britons’ multi-party preferences into Westminster representation.  If Cameron wants to govern in the interests of ‘One Nation’, he should think about the 5 million Green and UKIP voters who are represented by just two MPs between them.

Posted on Saturday, May 9, 2015 at 01:23PM by Registered CommenterDr Alister Miskimmon | CommentsPost a Comment

Strategic Narratives of Identity international symposium | University of Canterbury @UCNZ 

The University of Canterburyin New Zealand this week plays host to a major international symposium based upon the Strategic Narratives approach to international relations advanced by Alister Miskimmon, Ben O'Loughlin and Laura Roselle. The approach helps to explain how states and other actors in international affairs project and contest narratives about the past, present and future of international relations in order to shape the behaviour of others and steer global order - and history itself - in a certain direction. Strategic narrative research involves researching the formation, projection and reception of narratives in local and global media ecologies. Speakers at this symposium will address that most difficult of questions: how do audiences receive, interpret and respond to narratives of global order and identity?

Miskimmon and O'Loughlin will provide two keynote addresses, and the event features important speakers from China and Ukraine. 

A full programme for the event can be downloaded here

If you are in the area and wish to join, please RSVP to Gabriel Weibl gabrielweibl@gmail.com for catering purposes.

  • Date: Friday 27 February 2015, 9:00AM to 5:00PM
  • Location: Undercroft Seminar Room 101, Puaka-James Hight building, Ilam Campus
Posted on Sunday, February 22, 2015 at 10:08PM by Registered CommenterDr Alister Miskimmon | Comments Off

British-German-EU relations: From a slippery path to going downhill?  

Comment by Dr Anja Jakobi
Since this week end, the German weekly news magazine ‘Der Spiegel’ reports about growing tensions among British and German EU politics, a report that is today discussed widely in the British media. The most important aspect in the Spiegel report is that German chancellor Merkel seems to develop first strategies regarding a possible UK exit. She does not ‘fear it’ as some English-speaking commentators translated the German phrase literally. Quite the contrary is her statement meant to show that she accepts the ‘Brexit’ as a price for Europe to pay, if Cameron insists on changing the EU treaties the way he seemed to suggest in recent weeks – foremost targeted at his idea of restricting the freedom of movement by setting a threshold on the numbers of EU migrants to Britain. A ‘point of no return’ mentioned is that the British ideas on restricting free movement seem far unrealistic to the German government. From the German perspective, Britain seems to embark on political ideas that will never find the necessary support among its European neighbours. If this course of action is sustained, rather than trying to accommodate this British position by searching for compromise, Merkel considers devoting German political and financial resources to other topics of European interest. But while Germany might be the most outspoken EU member, other countries are not more willing to align to the British version of Europe.  
The statement marks a turning point. Merkel had been a repeated supporter of British ideas, most lately related to the benefit systems in the EU, as this is an issue that also causes tensions in Germany, where benefits to migrants are high, too. Her distancing from the UK is therefore remarkable and likely to remain for a while. Also, her statement reflects less a staking for a better negotiation position in upcoming talks, nor an ultimatum on Britain. It is worth looking at the different negotiating positions here: As it is foremost Britain that tries to make other EU countries agreeing on comprehensive EU reforms, not otherwise, the German position and those of other countries are already quite strong. If they – hypothetically – would do nothing, Britain would still not be able to change the EU treaties, so it is important to have allies for the British side if it wants to reform the EU.
Far from being only focussed on this single issue, however, the Merkel statement also means that Germany starts making publicly observable moves away from Britain. Following the media reports over the last weeks in Germany, there has been increasing irritation over British politics and perceptions. Many parts of the German public would not perceive the UK as helpful in reforming Europe, but as a country eager to do ‘cherry-picking’. This resentment against perceived British ‘special treatment’ is a growing concern in parts of the German public that has the, not necessarily fully correct, perception that Germany contributes already much more to the working and financing of the EU than others do. We know this perception problem from psychology: Research has shown that in group tasks – and the EU is a gigantic group exercise – individuals tend to think that they themselves delivered a bit more than the others, independent on what their contribution actually was. In politics among states, however, this perception can have drastic consequences for the cooperation of nations.
Merkel’s statement, delivered only a short time after Barroso’s open critique of the UK government, sheds light on the fact that the relations of the UK to Germany and other EU countries are on a very slippery path. Given the general pro-European sentiment in its population, Merkel will have problems in explaining concessions to the British to her German voters, if these concessions cannot be presented as serving a common good in Europe. Even more so, Cameron’s latest political moves in Europe – from being surprised and outraged at a bill that his administration knew for weeks, to the current aim to restrict freedom of movement – has left many pro-British allies deeply alienated. From the European perspective, there seems indeed need for reform, and the British perspective has been perceived to be a valuable one for most of the time. The main means for sustained engagement and prospect of EU reform is therefore not to give up British interests or positions. Instead, more political skills and diplomatic ties are needed to find common ground on what seems doable in an existing multilateral treaty - on which the EU is based and which had been negotiated with and signed by the British - and what is not. The fact that Merkel let the press report her concerns about the UK might already denote that diplomatic language only and talks behind closed doors with the British government seem wasted political efforts to her.
Having a preference for keeping the UK in Europe, Merkel is likely to be aware that her move might play into the hand of euroscepticism in Britain. The fact that she does not seem to care too much about this could signal that she finished to consider British discussions around the ‘Brexit’ to be a European issue, ultimately declining Cameron to continue a two-level play of blaming European politics in Britain and using British euroscepticism to drive change in Europe. To be or not to be in Europe will be a British affair only, if restrictions on the freedom of movement remains the aim of British politics. Bringing the discussion back to the UK only is certainly a common ground even with euroscepticism, but it is not making it easier for Cameron.
The signal seems that Europe will deal with whatever the British decide. The EU clearly prefers to keep Britain as member, but is prepared to give up the friend. For the months to follow, more negligence toward British domestic affairs might become the default option in Europe, a move that is paradoxically caused by too much British politics in recent European discussions. Ultimately, however, such negligence drives neither change in the EU, nor does it serve British interests. The most likely solution at this point, therefore, might be negotiations over a reduction in the benefits for migrants, while not restricting the freedom of movement. This is in the interests of both countries, but whether it is enough to keep Britain in the EU is not yet decided. But for some countries, this might not be the most important point anymore.
Dr Anja Jakobi is Senior Lecturer in International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Relations, Royal Holloway.

 

Posted on Tuesday, November 4, 2014 at 04:26PM by Registered CommenterDr Alister Miskimmon | CommentsPost a Comment

Reducing the number of Scots MPs

In his seminal book, What’s Wrong with the British Constitution?, Iain McLean explains how, before devolution, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were over-represented in the House of Commons by around 30% compared to England. If, instead, Scottish constituencies had represented the same number of voters as English constituencies then Scotland would have had around 55 MPs rather than 72. This over-representation was a reward for not having home rule and in a small way recognised the legitimacy of the Celtic nations in terms of representation beyond population size. Following devolution, the Scots MPs were reduced from 72 to 59. Wales and Northern Ireland, with lesser devolution, retained their original over-representation.

McLean opposes English votes for English laws. Instead he suggests mitigation for the “West Lothian” question through removal of the the over-representation of the devolved countries and adoption of under-representation as devolution is further increased. Given DevoMax, Scotland should actually be under-represented by 30% and would therefore have around 39 MPs. Increased devolution short of DevoMax for Wales and Northern Ireland would see their representation fall but to a lesser extent than that of Scotland.

The 39 rather than 59 MPs from Scotland would continue to vote on English matters. Equality between MPs would be retained and the right to vote on English matters could be seen as compensation for the reduction in their numbers, a reduction that is very real when it comes to voting on UK-wide issues such as immigration.

The McLean solution is not ideal but is preferable to either English-votes-for-English-laws, about whose disadvantages I have already written. It is also preferable to the Prussian-style instability of an English Parliament. The optimal solution of equal federalism that includes regionalisation in England may not be achievable given the resistance from vested interests and the apparent lack of demand for regionalisation in England.

 

Posted on Saturday, September 20, 2014 at 09:10PM by Registered CommenterDr Giacomo Benedetto | CommentsPost a Comment

An English Parliament or Symmetrical Federalism?

As I have argued elsewhere, English votes for English laws would be impossible to implement without a written constitution and would lead to discrimination against Scots MPs. But the creation of an English Parliament also provides a poor solution to the “West Lothian Question”.

Devolution to an English Parliament, a separate institution from the House of Commons, has some attractions. It would have power to vote on domestic legislation over education, health, transport and anything else that is also devolved in Scotland. It would be the English equivalent of the Scottish Parliament. It could work but it is not ideal and here is why.

First, presumably an English-wide government in London would be established alongside the UK government that would continue to look after foreign, defence and monetary policies. Would this be popular or effective? Second, it seems that that the DevoMax on offer for Scotland will not necessarily be matched in Wales and Northern Ireland. It is difficult to see how England-wide devolution could work unless there is absolute equality in powers exercised by the devolved parliaments and governments of the four countries. Third, even with equal DevoMax across the board, and equality between English and Scots MPs at Westminster given that the separate UK-wide government would be left as the non-devolved federal shell, England would still dominate. England makes up over 80% of the population of the UK. This would be a top-heavy federation, comparable to the role of Prussia from 1871 to 1932, which maintained separate institutions from Germany. The unhappy politics of Weimar Germany were worsened by turf wars between the two governments in Berlin, particularly when the Social Democrats continued to be in the Prussian government, while in opposition at the German level. An English government could destabilise not only the UK government but also the administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The remaining solution is symmetrical federalism to the existing devolved administrations and to new regional governments throughout England.  This means allowing those new administrations powers equal to those exercised by Scotland. Again this would leave the UK parliament and government with MPs who were equal and Ministers who would look after UK-wide, non-devolved powers.

We would hear that nobody in England wants regional government as we saw in the referendum over devolution in the North-East of England in 2004. That was a campaign led by John Prescott to introduce a regional government with very limited powers that was vulnerable to attack by a ‘no’ campaign focused on the ills of “useless” bureaucracy. There was no constitutional convention or engagement of citizens. If we talk of proper federalism based on DevoMax, and having engaged civil society in a proper debate, the chance to determine tax, spending, health, education, transport, police, justice, and almost everything that government does except for foreign, defence and monetary policies may be more popular – particularly since these powers would move from London without duplications. Regional identity in England varies, but there is a strong sense of identity in Yorkshire, the Midlands, London, and the South. What need to be abandoned are the regions invented by John Prescott. They are mostly too large and lack identity. Smaller counties with very strong identities like Cornwall could be regions. Micro-regions prosper in other countries, for example Ceuta (82,000 people) in Spain, Corsica (300,000 people) in France or the Aosta Valley (120,000 people) in Italy. Prescott’s regions lacked any chance of identity-formation precisely because they were too large and too few. Within England, he created only nine of them. This compares to 20 in Italy and 22 in France, which have a similar population size to the UK. In Spain, 40 million people live across 19 regions.

In each of these countries, regional government was set up without referendums but popular allegiance seemed to follow. Regionalisation in England could be accepted by a national referendum rather region-by-region if this were the will of a constitutional convention that engaged civil society and public opinion. Moving the bulk of domestic policy from a diminished Whitehall to regions or groups of counties or cities with some sense of identity could be an invigorating prospect for English democracy. Many Scots seem to approve of increased fiscal powers and ending the Barnett formula that over-rewards Scotland. Keeping money within one’s own devolved region could be remarkably popular, particularly with voters in southern England.

We cannot ignore that federalism reliant on full-scale regionalisation in England would be difficult to achieve. The Whitehall and Westminster elites would do all they can to resist and persuading public opinion could be insurmountable even with a constitutional convention of the type that took place in Scotland. In my next piece, I look at Iain McLean’s proposal for cutting the number of Scots (and perhaps Welsh and Northern Irish) MPs at Westminster.

 

Posted on Friday, September 19, 2014 at 10:36PM by Registered CommenterDr Giacomo Benedetto | Comments1 Comment